That Wealth Advisor-guy


Bear Markets Data Laid Bare
October 10, 2007, 2:03 pm
Filed under: Bear Markets

We have had somewhere between 26 Bear Markets since 1899 for a total of 34 years with an average decline of 32%. 

A Bear Market is a significant price decline composed of two or more Bear Legs.  We have had as many as eight Bear Legs, but often have had only 3 to 4, and by definition 2 is the minimum.  Bear Markets may occur because of economic changes in expected profits, inflation, monetary policy, yield curves or spreads, recessions, or wars, i.e., either less expected return or more risk. 

According to the DJIA, the average length of these 26 Bear Markets is 16 months, with a range of 2 months to 56 months; the range of the % declines is 14% to 90%, with a mean of 32%; the 508 point decline (22.6%) on 10/19/87 was the largest single-day decline.  The Dow last peaked at 11,723 on 01/14/00. After its largest sustained increase, from 1991 through 1999, the last Bear Market initially fell to 8,236 following 9/11/01, and 10 months later closed at 7,702 on 7/23/02. The current Bull Market has continued for over 5 years.  

Bear Market warning signs: high stock prices, trading volume, commodity prices, interest rates, industrial production, inventories and confidence, tight credit, low bond prices, labor shortages.

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